This Century Is Broken

David Brooks FEB. 21, 2017

Most of us came of age in the last half of the 20th century and had our perceptions of “normal” formed in that era. It was, all things considered, an unusually happy period. No world wars, no Great Depressions, fewer civil wars, fewer plagues.

It’s looking like we’re not going to get to enjoy one of those times again. The 21st century is looking much nastier and bumpier: rising ethnic nationalism, falling faith in democracy, a dissolving world order.

At the bottom of all this, perhaps, is declining economic growth. As Nicholas Eberstadt points out in his powerful essay “Our Miserable 21st Century,” in the current issue of Commentary, between 1948 and 2000 the U.S. economy grew at a per-capita rate of about 2.3 percent a year.

But then around 2000, something shifted. In this century, per-capita growth has been less than 1 percent a year on average, and even since 2009 it’s been only 1.1 percent a year. If the U.S. had been able to maintain postwar 20th-century growth rates into this century, U

For every one American man aged 25 to 55 looking for work, there are three who have dropped out of the labor force. If Americans were working at the same rates they were when this century started, over 10 million more people would have jobs. As Eberstadt puts it, “The plain fact is that 21st-century America has witnessed a dreadful collapse of work.”

That means there’s an army of Americans semi-attached to their communities, who struggle to contribute, to realize their capacities and find their dignity. According to Bureau of Labor Statistics time-use studies, these labor force dropouts spend on average 2,000 hours a year watching some screen. That’s about the number of hours that usually go to a full-time job.

Fifty-seven percent of white males who have dropped out get by on some form of government disability check. About half of the men who have dropped out take pain medication on a daily basis. A survey in Ohio found that over one three-month period, 11 percent of Ohioans were prescribed opiates. One in eight American men now has a felony conviction on his record.

This is no way for our fellow citizens to live. The Eberstadt piece confirms one thought: The central task for many of us now is not to resist Donald Trump. He’ll seal his own fate. It’s to figure out how to replace him — how to respond to the slow growth and social disaffection that gave rise to him with some radically different policy mix.

The hard part is that America has to become more dynamic and more protective — both at the same time. In the past, American reformers could at least count on the fact that they were working with a dynamic society that was always generating the energy required to solve the nation’s woes. But as Tyler Cowen demonstrates in his compelling new book, “The Complacent Class,” contemporary Americans have lost their mojo.

Cowen shows that in sphere after sphere, Americans have become less adventurous and more static. For example, Americans used to move a lot to seize opportunities and transform their lives. But the rate of Americans who are migrating across state lines has plummeted by 51 percent from the levels of the 1950s and 1960s.

Americans used to be entrepreneurial, but there has been a decline in start-ups as a share of all business activity over the last generation. Millennials may be the least entrepreneurial generation in American history. The share of Americans under 30 who own a business has fallen 65 percent since the 1980s.

Americans tell themselves the old job-for-life model is over. But in fact Americans are switching jobs less than a generation ago, not more. The job reallocation rate — which measures employment turnover — is down by more than a quarter since 1990.

There are signs that America is less innovative. Accounting for population growth, Americans create 25 percent fewer major international patents than in 1999. There’s even less hunger to hit the open road. In 1983, 69 percent of 17-year-olds had driver’s licenses. Now only half of Americans get a license by age 18.

In different ways Eberstadt and Cowen are describing a country that is decelerating, detaching, losing hope, getting sadder. Economic slowdown, social disaffection and risk aversion reinforce one another.

Of course nothing is foreordained. But where is the social movement that is thinking about the fundamentals of this century’s bad start and envisions an alternate path? Who has a compelling plan to boost economic growth? If Trump is not the answer, what is?

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How algorithms (secretly) run the world

Algorithm, complex mathematical formulas, are playing a growing role in all walks of life: from health, to shopping, and jobs (AFP Photo/ROSLAN RAHMAN)

Washington (AFP) – When you browse online for a new pair of shoes, pick a movie to stream on Netflix or apply for a car loan, an algorithm likely has its word to say on the outcome.

The complex mathematical formulas are playing a growing role in all walks of life: from detecting skin cancers to suggesting new Facebook friends, deciding who gets a job, how police resources are deployed, who gets insurance at what cost, or who is on a “no fly” list.

Algorithms are being used — experimentally — to write news articles from raw data, while Donald Trump’s presidential campaign was helped by behavioral marketers who used an algorithm to locate the highest concentrations of “persuadable voters.”

But while such automated tools can inject a measure of objectivity into erstwhile subjective decisions, fears are rising over the lack of transparency algorithms can entail, with pressure growing to apply standards of ethics or “accountability.”

Data scientist Cathy O’Neil cautions about “blindly trusting” formulas to determine a fair outcome.

“Algorithms are not inherently fair, because the person who builds the model defines success,” she said.

– Amplifying disadvantages –

O’Neil argues that while some algorithms may be helpful, others can be nefarious. In her 2016 book, “Weapons of Math Destruction,” she cites some troubling examples in the United States:

– Public schools in Washington DC in 2010 fired more than 200 teachers — including several well-respected instructors — based on scores in an algorithmic formula which evaluated performance.

– A man diagnosed with bipolar disorder was rejected for employment at seven major retailers after a third-party “personality” test deemed him a high risk based on its algorithmic classification.

– Many jurisdictions are using “predictive policing” to shift resources to likely “hot spots.” O’Neill says that depending on how data is fed into the system, this could lead to discovery of more minor crimes and a “feedback loop” which stigmatizes poor communities.

– Some courts rely on computer-ranked formulas to determine jail sentences and parole, which may discriminate against minorities by taking into account “risk” factors such as their neighborhoods and friend or family links to crime.

– In the world of finance, brokers “scrape” data from online and other sources in new ways to make decisions on credit or insurance. This too often amplifies prejudice against the disadvantaged, O’Neil argues.

Her findings were echoed in a White House report last year warning that algorithmic systems “are not infallible — they rely on the imperfect inputs, logic, probability, and people who design them.”

The report noted that data systems can ideally help weed out human bias but warned against algorithms “systematically disadvantaging certain groups.”

– Digital crumbs –

Zeynep Tufekci, a University of North Carolina professor who studies technology and society, said automated decisions are often based on data collected about people, sometimes without their knowledge.

“These computational systems can infer all sorts of things about you from your digital crumbs,” Tufekci said in a recent TED lecture.

“They can infer your sexual orientation, your personality traits, your political leanings. They have predictive power with high levels of accuracy.”

Such insights may be useful in certain contexts — such as helping medical professionals diagnose postpartum depression — but unfair in others, she said.

Part of the problem, she said, stems from asking computers to answer questions that have no single right answer.

“They are subjective, open-ended and value-laden questions, asking who should the company hire, which update from which friend should you be shown, which convict is more likely to reoffend.”

– The EU model? –

Frank Pasquale, a University of Maryland law professor and author of “The Black Box Society: The Secret Algorithms That Control Money and Information,” shares the same concerns.

He suggests one way to remedy unfair effects may be to enforce existing laws on consumer protection or deceptive practices.

Pasquale points at the European Union’s data protection law, set from next year to create a “right of explanation” when consumers are impacted by an algorithmic decision, as a model that could be expanded.

This would “either force transparency or it will stop algorithms from being used in certain contexts,” he said.

Alethea Lange, a policy analyst at the Center for Democracy and Technology, said the EU plan “sounds good” but “is really burdensome” and risked proving unworkable in practice.

She believes education and discussion may be more important than enforcement in developing fairer algorithms.

Lange said her organization worked with Facebook, for example, to modify a much-criticized formula that allowed advertisers to use “ethnic affinity” in their targeting.

– Scapegoat –

Others meanwhile caution that algorithms should not be made a scapegoat for societal ills.

“People get angry and they are looking for something to blame,” said Daniel Castro, vice president at the Information Technology and Innovation Foundation.

“We are concerned about bias, accountability and ethical decisions but those exist whether you are using algorithms or not.”

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The Life of the Party: 7 Truths for Democrats

Posted on Jan 22, 2017

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Online and Scared

Thomas Friedman

January 11, 2017

And so it came to pass that in the winter of 2016 the world hit a tipping point that was revealed by the most unlikely collection of actors: Vladimir Putin, Jeff Bezos, Donald Trump, Mark Zuckerberg and the Macy’s department store. Who’d have thunk it?

And what was this tipping point?

It was the moment when we realized that a critical mass of our lives and work had shifted away from the terrestrial world to a realm known as “cyberspace.” That is to say, a critical mass of our interactions had moved to a realm where we’re all connected but no one’s in charge.

After all, there are no stoplights in cyberspace, no police officers walking the beat, no courts, no judges, no God who smites evil and rewards good, and certainly no “1-800-Call-If-Putin-Hacks-Your-Election.” If someone slimes you on Twitter or Facebook, well, unless it is a death threat, good luck getting it removed, especially if it is done anonymously, which in cyberspace is quite common.

And yet this realm is where we now spend increasing hours of our day. Cyberspace is now where we do more of our shopping, more of our dating, more of our friendship-making and sustaining, more of our learning, more of our commerce, more of our teaching, more of our communicating, more of our news-broadcasting and news-seeking and more of our sIt’s where both our president-elect and the leader of ISIS can communicate with equal ease with tens of millions of their respective followers through Twitter — without editors, fact-checkers, libel lawyers or other filters.

And, I would argue, 2016 will be remembered as the year when we fully grasped just how scary that can be — how easy it was for a presidential candidate to tweet out untruths and half-truths faster than anyone could correct them, how cheap it was for Russia to intervene on Trump’s behalf with hacks of Democratic operatives’ computers and how unnerving it was to hear Yahoo’s chief information security officer, Bob Lord, say that his company still had “not been able to identify” how one billion Yahoo accounts and their sensitive user information were hacked in 2013.

Even President Obama was taken aback by the speed at which this tipping point tipped. “I think that I underestimated the degree to which, in this new information age, it is possible for misinformation, for cyberhacking and so forth, to have an impact on our open societies,” he told ABC News’s “This Week.”

At first Zuckerberg, the Facebook founder, insisted that fake news stories carried by Facebook “surely had no impact” on the election and that saying so was “a pretty crazy idea.” But in a very close election it was not crazy at all.

Facebook — which wants all the readers and advertisers of the mainstream media but not to be saddled with its human editors and fact-checkers — is now taking more seriously its responsibilities as a news purveyor in cyberspace.

Alan S. Cohen, chief commercial officer of the cybersecurity firm Illumio (I am a small shareholder), noted in an interview on siliconAngle.com that the reason this tipping point tipped now was because so many companies, governments, universities, political parties and individuals have concentrated a critical mass of their data in enterprise data centers and cloud computing environments.

Ten years ago, said Cohen, bad guys did not have the capabilities to get at all this data and extract it, but “now they do,” and as more creative tools like big data and artificial intelligence get “weaponized,” this will become an even bigger problem. It’s a huge legal, moral and strategic problem, and it will require, said Cohen, “a new social compact” to defuse.

Work on that compact has to start with every school teaching children digital civics. And that begins with teaching them that the internet is an open sewer of untreated, unfiltered information, where they need to bring skepticism and critical thinking to everything they read and basic civic decency to everything they write.

A Stanford Graduate School of Education study published in November found “a dismaying inability by students to reason about information they see on the internet. Students, for example, had a hard time distinguishing advertisements from news articles or identifying where information came from. … One assessment required middle schoolers to explain why they might not trust an article on financial planning that was written by a bank executive and sponsored by a bank. The researchers found that many students did not cite authorship or article sponsorship as key reasons for not believing the article.”

Prof. Sam Wineburg, the lead author of the report, said: “Many people assume that because young people are fluent in social media they are equally perceptive about what they find there. Our work shows the opposite to be true.”

In an era when more and more of our lives have moved to this digital realm, that is downright scary.

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Fake News’ in America: Homegrown, and Far From New

Posted on Dec 18, 2016

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The Only Way Forward-Can the new world order be saved by humanism?

December 13, 2016

By Anne-Marie Slaughter | Illustration By Jason Holley

This year was in many ways one of great-power politics. The resurgence of Russia on the global stage, from Ukraine to Syria to China. The Saudi-Iranian power struggle in the Middle East. China’s assertion of its status as the Middle Kingdom once again, expecting deference from its neighbors in East and Southeast Asia. North Korea’s determined pursuit of nuclear weapons. Even Great Britain’s rejection of the European Union, fueled in part by Tory dreams of Britannia sovereign once again. It is a world of deals and shifting alliances, particularly as Pax Americana seems to wane—a trend that Donald Trump’s stunning election as president threatens to accelerate—and U.S. foreign policy takes a decidedly realist turn.

It is a world of 21 million refugees and 41 million internally displaced people, driven from their homes by war, famine, and tyranny; a world in which a half-million Syrians have been slaughtered in front of our eyes; a world with a conscience that can no longer be shocked by human suffering, whether from poison gas, barrel bombs, deliberate and systematic rape, or looming genocide. How, then, can one argue that this was a year of humanism?

Part of the answer lies in numbers. Our world comprises 195 states. A state is defined under international law as an entity with a permanent population, a defined territory, a government, and the capacity to enter into relations with other states. Human beings have not figured out a better way to organize themselves globally, other than emerging regional actors such as the EU, which is having an identity crisis. Despite exaggerated claims about the rise of cities and the new medievalism, states are here to stay. Within them, however, are 7.4 billion people who are making their presence and power increasingly felt on the global stage.

Individual activists have a long history, of course. A review of Nobel Peace Prize winners shows an alternation between politicians and notable individuals determined to shape their world in a big way: Jimmy Carter, Shirin Ebadi, Nelson Mandela, Muhammad Yunus, Shimon Peres. Today, however, ordinary people—whose names may never be widely famous, who may never win Nobels—are empowered as never before. On mobile devices in some 2 billion pockets, men and women can create companies, start social movements, make art, guide refugees, and find like-minded citizens. Technological capabilities obviously enable criminals as well as creators, but individual capacity to turn dreams into reality is greater than at any point in human history.

The rise of human agency also comes from the creation of new professions. Social entrepreneurship and social-impact investing open wide, new vistas for individuals committed to solving global problems. As Roger Martin and Sally Osberg argue in their book, Getting Beyond Better, social entrepreneurs are distinct from direct social-service providers and social advocates. They “seek to shift a stable but suboptimal equilibrium in a way that is neither entirely mandated nor entirely market-driven. They create new approaches to old and pernicious problems. And they work directly to tip society to a new and better state.”

Taken in the aggregate, such organizations have as much global impact as many countries have with their foreign aid budgets. Whereas countries must depend on their tax coffers, the reservoirs of social entrepreneurship are the infinitely renewable energy and innovation of individuals. It is what New York Times columnist Nicholas Kristof has called “DIY foreign aid.”

Social-impact investing has exploded from a few pioneers into a diverse ecosystem of boutique funds, philanthropic organizations, family offices, and large commercial banks. In Capital and the Common Good, author Georgia Levenson Keohane notes that nearly every mainstream financial institution, from Barclays to Bain Capital, now has a social or sustainable finance unit. The landscape is highly specialized by geography and issue area, ranging from small-business development to environmental and economic sustainability.

Governments, too, have taken account of this increased human capacity, gradually transforming the very nature and practice of foreign policy. Statecraft is a strategic chess game between national governments. Webcraft is the work of corporations, civic organizations, universities, foundations, mayors, and governors—all creating and participating in global networks that combat climate change, terrorism, infectious disease, human rights violations, and more. Astute foreign-policy practitioners utilize both.

Consider the United Nations climate change negotiations in Paris. As Oxford professor and activist Thomas Hale has explained, the Paris Agreement of last December represents a paradigm shift in international agreements, from a “regulatory” model of enforceable legal obligations to a “catalytic and facilitative” model that both spurs and helps a wide range of actors meet a rolling schedule of steadily increasing commitments. That model, in turn, can work only if state parties to an agreement formally include nonstate and substate actors—or, as they insisted on being called in Paris, “non-Party stakeholders.” These are not simply NGO lobbyists. According to a study released during the Paris negotiations, more than 7,000 cities from more than 99 countries and some 5,000 companies from 88 countries made climate commitments. The cities represent 11 percent of the world’s population and about 32 percent of the global gross domestic product, and the companies represent over $38 trillion in revenue.

These actors are not new, nor is their presence at multilateral negotiations. Jody Williams and the International Campaign to Ban Landmines won the Nobel Peace Prize in 1997 for catalyzing the negotiation of the Mine Ban Treaty. Paris was different, though, because it included such actors not as alternatives or as useful additions to the intergovernmental regime, but as central elements of that regime: An action agenda for non-Party stakeholders was the “fourth pillar” of the negotiations, on par with national pledges, the financing package, and an agreement.

This approach is being used to address the refugee crisis as well. Alongside a U.N. General Assembly Summit on refugees in September, U.S. President Barack Obama hosted a smaller Leaders Summit of 50 nations to collect pledges to help refugees and a Call to Action meeting of private-sector CEOs. In his remarks, he announced that more than 50 companies had committed more than $650 million in cash and in-kind assistance. George Soros also personally committed to invest $500 million in programs and companies benefiting refugees.

A reason to celebrate, or at least elevate, humanism is that human interests and strategic interests are slowly but inexorably merging. Think about what “human interest” generally means: the lighthearted or sometimes tragic story about the adventures or travails of another person, one that will draw eyes on a page or serve as instant click bait. Alternatively, think about “humanitarian interests,” the moral side of foreign policy that proper Machiavellians must learn to ignore. The death of innocent individuals, the destruction of cities, the desecration of heritage—becoming a statesperson means not letting your heart bleed, or at least learning to hide it beneath layers of properly cool calculation. To be fair, the prince whom Machiavelli counsels is bound to eschew global morality in favor of advancing the interests of his people, a moral and political obligation of its own. As realists never tire of pointing out, sometimes rightly, “legalism-moralism,” as George Kennan called it, can lead to more bloodshed than the problem it sought to solve. Every action has consequences, many of them unintended.

In a world of increased human agency, however, for bad as well as good, conflicts cannot be snuffed out by government decree. If the combatants do not answer to a government, they will not stop fighting when a government says so. U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov can agree to a cease-fire in Syria, but neither they nor any other government controls the actual fighters. Even when governments obliterate a battlefield, destroying enemy strongholds and recapturing cities, the tension simmers like an underground fire, ready to flare with enough oxygen.

In this world, what happens to people matters. Torture a family’s children; kill parents, spouses, and siblings with a barrel bomb or a gas attack; pulverize a neighborhood—the people will not forget. Think how many “frozen conflicts” erupted after the Cold War, enmities that governments had repressed with censorship, soldiers, and secret police. Revenge can be delayed but not denied, unless injustice is ultimately answered with at least some measure of justice.

Humanitarianism is not enough. It is a palliative after the fact, but it also misses the deeper point. Violence and displacement will spread like disease, from person to person, family to family, and country to country. Plenty of atrocities in plenty of countries will remain unaddressed, but as the doctrine of the Responsibility to Protect attempted to delineate, governments must act when another government commits genocide, crimes against humanity, ethnic cleansing, or systematic and serious war crimes. States must embrace the values of humanism in the service of self-interest. That may be a heavy lift for President-elect Trump, who has given no sign of concern for the plight of any humans other than Americans. Yet governments of every stripe will ultimately come to understand that prevention is in their self-interest, even if takes a cataclysm or two to drive home the point.

Perhaps, however, we embrace humanism just as we are losing our humanness. Technologists and futurists predict that genetically engineered superhumans and cyborgs are the future, possibly as soon as later this century. Historian Yuval Noah Harari, author of Sapiens: A Brief History of Humankind, anticipates the disappearance of Homo sapiens as a species. Moving toward a world in which the digital and the physical realms merge—and biology no longer just means the study of natural but of engineered beings as well—it seems reasonable to cling ever more tightly to the consciousness and connections that make us human.

Harari describes the “cognitive revolution” occurring roughly 70,000 years ago, which gave Homo sapiens not simply the ability to communicate but to communicate in “fictive language,” the capacity to imagine things that do not exist—from love to art to law—and then to bring them to life. In a digital, automated, data-designed future, celebrating and advancing humanist values and, indeed, increasing our respect for all living beings may be the only way forward.

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The Mafia State

Posted on Dec 4, 2016

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California Versus Trumpland

Posted on Nov 30, 2016

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Waiting for the Barbarians

posted on Nov 27, 2016

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We Are All Deplorables

Posted on Nov 20, 2016

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